2014 Run Timing Outlook and Forecast Summary: Chinook Salmon, Yukon River Delta

The outlook is for an early run this year. The outlook and its associated forecast are based on the historical fish and environmental variables for which the 2014 data are given below. This timing information is intended for use by fishery managers, residents of Yukon River communities, and others to estimate when the Chinook salmon run will arrive on the delta and how it will develop through June and July 2014. Contained on this page are: (1) the modeled and estimated cumulative percents of the 2014 Chinook salmon run, (2) the cumulative CPUE for 2014, calculated by combining numbers from the Big Eddy, Middle Mouth and North Mouth test fisheries, compared to a selection of historical runs, and (3) marine environmental data that were used as inputs to the 2014 outlook and forecast model. At times during the course of the season after sufficient catch data have accumulated to evaluate the timing models, the timing forecast may be updated if the run turns out to be earlier or later than now expected.

Chart 1. Forecast of the cumulative percent of the Chinook run in Y-1 on each date from June 1 through July 15, 2014 (pale blue solid line). Deep blue bars are forecasts of the dates of the 15%, 25% and 50% points of the run based on environmental drivers. The pale blue line was made by fitting a model to the estimated percentage points. The cyan-colored line and dots shows 2014 cumulative CPUE converted to estimated run percentages as the 2014 season progresses.

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Chart 2. 2014 Cumulative test fishery CPUE compared to historical CPUE data provided by Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim Region, Alaska Department of Fish and Game. The earliest run was observed in 1996 (green), and the latest run was observed in 2012 (orange). Also shown are the average of all runs between 1989 and 2011 except 2009 (blue) and the 2010 run (purple).

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Near Real-Time Marine Environmental Variables

Air Temperature (°F) for Nome and Emmonak, AK

April Mean Air Temperature Nome: 28.4°F (-2.00°C)

Marine Surface Temperature (°C) for 63.1°N 165.5°W

May Mean Sea Surface Temperature:

Average Sea Ice Concentration (%) for 62–63°N, 166–169°W

Mean Ice Cover, March 20–June 1:

Winds measured at Emmonak Airport (mph)